Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourists Who Visit to East Java Using Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

Indonesia has many islands and there are beautiful inland areas, interesting historical and cultural ruins,
beaches, mountains, and more. Especially in the tourism sector is one of the largest industries that are very
influential and grow very fast. The advancement of the tourism industry in a region is very dependent on the
number of tourists who come both domestic and foreign tourists. The large number of foreign tourists that come
push and accelerate economic growth. So that directly leads to an increase in demand for goods and services. To
meet the needs and demands of tourists, it is necessary to predict the number of visits of foreign tourists. One
method that can be used in forecasting is Monte Carlo. From the results of Monte Carlo research can work well,
From the stage of the prediction system implementation that has been built using the initial parameter 12 months
100x simulation and delta-t = 0.001, then get sigma = 52.2650054, Mu = -0.0398. And the simulation is more
accurate in predicting the number of foreign tourist visits in East Java, which has a small error value. To get a
smaller error value is by reducing or delta-t value.