Forecasting Sales 3 Kg Lpg Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Forecasting is a very important in corporate strategy planning. Single Exponential Smoothing Method is one of the
time series forecasting methods. The purpose of this study is the number of selling period can be subsequent profits
can be sold to customers with appropriate obtained CV. Damayanti every month. This research uses selling data
obtained by selling 3kg LPG for 7 years from january 2009 until December 2016. The result of this forecasting is
done by Single Exponential Smoothing method with the result of error calculation and selected forecasting result
which has minimum MAE. The alpha value is the smallest MAE result = 0.9: 2534.26 from the 3kg lpg sales
forecast. The alpha value used affects the results of different forecasts. Then the result of the prediction of each base
or region has a smoothing value that is setabil, up, down its value of forecasting results.