System Prediction Production PT.Vico Indonesia Using Method Holt Winters

Abstract

Problem that Taken in this study is the process of forecasting oil and gas production in accordance so that companies
can know the prediction of the amount of oil and gas in the future. The method used to determine production prediction
is Holt-Winters forecasting method. In testing the system will do the comparison of alpha, beta and gamma. Using the
alpha value = 0.2, beta = 0.1 and gamma 0.5 to get better multiplicative forecast for oil and gas data. And to get the
smaller error difference compared to the smaller alpha (α), beta (β) and gamma (γ) then the smaller the difference
will be. The Multiplexative Spring Method and the Seasonal Additive Method are good enough for oil and gas
production data